This report summarises the results of the Commodities and Biodiversity project, funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The project aimed to develop knowledge and tools for decision makers to balance different demands on land, plan appropriate actions and respond to future pressures on ecosystems in the three focal regions of the Foundation: the Great Lakes of East Central Africa, the Greater Mekong and its Headwaters, and the Watersheds of the Andes.

The Commodities and Biodiversity project sought to explore pressures and potential impacts of future commodity-driven scenarios of change, taking into account plausible socio-economic trends and climate change, based on regional expert input. It also aimed to use such information to support the review and strengthening of agricultural development policy in the Great Lakes of East Central Africa; the Greater Mekong and its Headwaters; and the Watersheds of the Andes.

The project:

• Collected information on the past trends and current situation regarding the pressures on biodiversity and ecosystem services in each of the three regions.
• Conducted literature reviews on methods for different elements of spatial mapping and scenario development and made these available as technical reports and an e-learning course.
• Adapted and developed regionally specific future scenarios using input from a wide range of stakeholders in collaboration with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Scenarios focused on socio-economic changes such as markets, governance, broad economic developments, and infrastructure.
• Developed a spatial framework that allows the evaluation of threats and potential impacts on biodiversity of future land-use changes under different socio-economic scenarios.
• Conducted outreach and dissemination through workshops, collaboration and a web-based tool that allows easy exploration of the results for the analyses within each study region. Policy evaluation workshops reviewed the results and assessed the robustness of national policies in the face of future developments and uncertainty.

The workshops allowed participants from different sectors of government and civil society to think about possible futures together and use the scenarios and modelled impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services to inform national planning for adaptation to climate change or agricultural development.

As a result of the scenario building workshop held in Viet Nam in 2013, Cambodia’s Climate Change Priorities Action Plan for Agriculture 2014-2018 features scenario-guided priority-setting in the face of climate change, and a strong focus on climate-smart agriculture.

In Colombia, a workshop participant on the team drafting Colombia’s Implementation Plan for the National Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change planned to present recommendations to include the perspectives of environmental organizations participating in the workshop to the ministerial team drafting the Plan.

In the Greater Mekong region, the project team contributed to WWF’’s technical input into the Investing in Natural Capital for a Sustainable Future in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), a meeting document for 4th GMS Environment Ministers’ Meeting.

Finally, this project was designed to contribute to UNEP’s work on supporting “Ecosystems Management through the Landscape Approach” and is embedded as such in its Programme of Work for 2014-2017.

This work was funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. UNEP-WCMC worked with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Kassel University, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS) and other partners, to develop and quantify socio-economic scenarios for each region, model scenario-driven land-use change and engage with national stakeholders and policy processes. Additional funding by UN Environment supported development of the e-Learning modules. Related resources are available below.